NWSL Outliers: Matchday 9
Bethune is Back!
Welcome to Outliers. Every week, I look across the NWSL for statistical anomalies — those players that stood out from the rest by putting up objectively high numbers. I tell you what they did, why it matters, and what to expect in the future. To receive Outliers in your inbox every week, you can subscribe below:
Data from American Soccer Analysis unless otherwise noted.
Note: Percentiles were calculated after normalizing all stats per 45 minutes. Those who played less than 45 minutes were excluded from consideration.
Caiya Hanks (vs. Houston Dash)
You might be thinking to yourself: didn’t you just profile Caiya Hanks a few weeks ago? What is this? Amateur hour? To answer your *hypothetical* question, yes, I did just profile Caiya Hanks… the thing is, she was by far the greatest standout from Matchday 9. Here’s what I had to say after her breakout performance against Gotham:
Caiya Hanks impressed against Gotham FC midweek with a performance that just oozed good vibes. Hanks failed to hit any 98th or 99th percentile numbers in her 90 minutes on the pitch, but she didn’t need to: Hanks logged 93+ percentile numbers in five different categories with 95th percentile values in two of those. Not bad for a 20-year-old rookie. Oh, and she scored her first ever professional goal.
Despite the big moment, Hanks’ greatest contributions came in the form of chance creation and an eye for playmaking… While her passing volume wasn’t huge, she made it count… Is there such a thing as a cutback merchant? If so, we might have one on our hands.
Hanks followed up her breakout match against Gotham with a lackluster 90 versus Louisville, but it’s clear that the talent is there. The Thorns have a lot of moving pieces they’ll need to experiment with… but a young, promising playmaker being added to the mix can only help the team’s prospects. Hanks is here, folks.
Hanks showed quality and promise, but after a couple of less impressive games, the question was whether these were simply flashes of brilliance or signs of things to come. Last week, I followed up on Hanks after another good 45 minutes against San Diego, and wrote this:
She may not be ready to bear the weight of a full-time role in Portland, but these are very promising signs for a 20-year-old rookie. Keep watching her.
I got one part right, but I’m not so sure about the rest anymore. Hanks started against the Dash and made a pretty convincing argument that she should keep that spot, with solid solo attacking threat, excellent dribbling in wide areas, and a knack for chance creation all on display. Three weeks ago, I talked about her passing; now, I’d like to take a moment to appreciate the youngster’s ball-carrying skills, too:
6 progressive carries (98th percentile) in 63 minutes is impressive, yes, but the areas in which they occurred tell an even better story. Hanks was a menace and drove the ball into the box time and time again, earning herself 0.26 dribbling goals added (g+) (98th percentile). Hanks was the real deal and showed an incredible willingness to run at Houston’s backline — just watch this passage of play less than a minute into the match:
Her beautiful curler in the 53rd minute capped off an impressive night for the winger and may have cemented her spot in the XI for the foreseeable future. The Dash’s defence was horrendous, but Portland’s attack was dynamic, free-flowing, and fun to watch, and Hanks was a big part of that. Like I said last week, “keep watching her,” you won’t regret it.
Croix Bethune (vs. Utah Royals)
She’s back! Croix Bethune made her first start of the season on Saturday against the Royals and performed well enough to land her near the top of this week’s Outliers rankings. Now, granted, this week’s slate of performances was a fairly weak one, but nonetheless, Bethune delivered: in 78 minutes, the 24-year-old notched 12 penalty area touches and 0.65 xG (95th percentile) as well as a 93rd percentile value in shooting g+. On top of that, Bethune had an impressive 0.13 dribbling g+ (94th percentile) and completed three key passes.
Like I said, it wasn’t a world-class-level performance, but it was only Bethune’s first start, and it’s a good sign that we’re starting to see the same player that took the league by storm last year. In case you need a refresher on the type of player that Bethune is, here you go:
In 2024, Croix wasn’t just a league-leading attacker (0.55 npxG + xA is insane), but she was also one of the best passers around, as shown by her 0.06 passing g+ per 96 minutess and 8.74 passes completed above expected per 100 passes. This wasn’t just a rookie, this was an MVP candidate (when healthy), and if things continue the way they’re trending, the Washington Spirit might have that same player back this year, too. If you don't believe me, here’s Bethune next to the attacking midfielder that was a finalist for MVP last season:
Marta, watch out. Bethune might be here to take your spot.
Payton Linnehan (vs. Houston Dash)
Yeah, Houston’s defense fell apart, but that doesn’t take anything away from the impressive performances by all three of Portland’s young attackers. We already talked about Caiya Hanks, next up is Paython Linnehan. The 24-year-old winger had an impressive 45 minutes, logging three key passes (94th percentile), 0.08 dribbling g+ (95th percentile), and 0.13 shooting g+ (98th percentile). Here’s some of that shooting prowess on display:
An absolutely inch-perfect finish from Linnehan as she notched her first of the season in her first start since the Thorns lost at Seattle a month ago. It’s been a slow start to the campaign for the sophomore, but on Friday, Linnehan showed that she had some promise and danger inside of her. Was it perfect? No. Linnehan will need to put in the work and take a step up if she wants to play in this attack week in and week out, but is this Thorns side perfect either? No. Goals are good, no matter where they come from, and Linnehan found one against the Dash. Let’s see if she can keep finding more of them.
Familiar Faces
Taylor Flint
90 minutes, 15 successful defensive actions in opposing half (97th percentile), 5 aerial duels won (94th percentile), 0.22 receiving g+ (93rd percentile)
If I hadn’t just profiled Flint, she, too, might have made her way onto Outliers this week. The midfielder was all over the place and continued to prove why she is one of the best 6s in the league. You can read what I just wrote about her here.
Maddie Dahlien
75 minutes, 0.74 xG (96th percentile), 0.12 shooting g+ (94th percentile)
Way back in the first edition of Outliers, I talked about Dahlien’s obvious talent and said this:
...the kinks will iron themselves out, the balls will start going in the back of the net, and the points will come.
The Reign are now in 6th and while the goals haven’t really been flowing, Dahlien has finally found her stride. Against Lousiville, Dahlien once again found herself slipped in behind, and instead of missing (like against Orlando), she buried it.
Honorable Mentions
Casey Krueger
45 minutes, 0.16 shooting g+ (98th percentile), 0.31 xG (93rd percentile), 0.06 dribbling g+ (93rd percentile)
Meg Boade
45 minutes, 0.49 xG (97th percentile), 0.05 shooting g+ (91st percentile), 2 key passes (90th percentile)
Ludmila
86 minutes, 0.43 dribbling g+ (98th percentile), 0.64 xG (94th percentile)
Thorns 2026 - Caiya Hanks + Sophia Wilson. To Dream!