NWSL Outliers: Matchday 4
Esther, Ludmila steal the show with a pair of braces and a rookie makes her mark
Welcome to the first edition of Outliers, a newsletter that takes you through each week’s top performers and standout stars. Here’s how it’ll work: after every matchday, I’ll take a look at each player’s stats and see how they stack up against every other single-game performance in league history. Those that set themselves apart (usually by landing in the 97th-98th percentile across a few different metrics) will be highlighted in this very newsletter. I’ll show you what they did, why it matters, and what to expect in the future. If that sounds interesting, make sure to subscribe so you can get these delivered directly to your inbox every single week.
Data from American Soccer Analysis unless otherwise noted.
Note: Percentiles were calculated after normalizing all stats per 45 minutes. Those who played less than 45 minutes were excluded from consideration.
Ludmila (vs. Bay FC)
Ludmila put up astronomical numbers at PayPal Park on Sunday, leading the Stars to their first win of the season. She was a terror for Bay’s backline, carrying the ball again and again straight toward goal; watching her dribble is like watching a trained missile head directly for its target. It’s safe to say that Abby Dahlkemper & Co. will be seeing the Brazilian’s step-overs and sharp cuts in their nightmares for weeks to come.
In 89 minutes, Ludmila put up 0.59 raw dribbling goals added (g+) — that’s a 99th-percentile performance that leaves her among the echelons most recently reserved for Barbra Banda and Temwa Chawinga. Overall, her four progressive carries (all culminating in box entries) helped move the ball into dangerous places, but the run is nothing without a finish to match. Ludmila delivered: her thirteen box touches and five shots were converted into 1.31 xG and two goals. And a backflip!!! That’s a complete attacking threat if I’ve ever seen one.
The 30-year-old’s standout performance comes after a slow start to the season with two scoreless games against relatively meek opponents. An in-form, transitional attacker is exactly what no-longer-last-place Chicago need right now, and if Ludmila can keep this up, they might have a way out of the hole they dug themselves before the international break. While one game is nowhere near enough of a sample size, the partnership between Ludmila and second-year forward Jameese Joseph could be one to watch (side note: can we appreciate that ball on the first goal? An absolute dime by Joseph — while she didn’t make this week’s list, her 0.11 passing g+ per 45 minutes led the league. She’s still 22, and so far has played a role in every single one of the Stars’ goals.)
Another talking point will be Bay’s defense (or lack thereof) on both goals. Chicago were happy to sit back and absorb pressure (what else is new), but Bay were ill-equipped to defend the counter. Perhaps it was the false confidence associated with putting up 86 field tilt at home against the worst team in the league, or maybe it was the sun in their eyes, but the Stars were disorganized when it really mattered, and Ludmila capitalized.
Esther (vs. North Carolina Courage)
Esther was a menace at Sports Illustrated Stadium on Sunday afternoon. There’s no other word to describe her. A classy, vintage #9 performance from the Spaniard powered Gotham to their first three points and multi-goal performance of the year. In fact, Esther’s opener in the 43rd minute broke a 303-minute goalless drought for Gotham, a team that, mind you, were only shut out four times in NWSL play last season. How did she do it? A pure poacher’s header in the 43rd minute and, six minutes later, some quick thinking that led to a second just before half. Overall, Esther logged over one xG, 0.28 shooting g+, and two successful defensive actions in the opposing half (rip Casey Murphy).
While Esther didn’t excel in too many other categories, she didn’t need to. Two goals in the first half, coupled with Lilly Reale’s header right after the break, was enough to effectively put the game to bed. Gotham had yet to really “wow” anyone coming into Matchday 4, but they managed to do just that against a Courage team that seems to be going through a midlife crisis.
Gotham still have some work to do — they’re a win back from Angel City who have effectively replaced them in the top 4 we observed last year — but the season is young and a resounding win is three steps in the right direction.
The future for a floundering Courage side is far less certain. Without a win in four and sitting just one point clear of last place, North Carolina need something — inspiration, divine intervention, etc. The Jaedyn Shaw Predicament continues to plague an attack that has no clear identity or purpose, and while the #19 in question has shown moments of quality, she has yet to display what we know she can do.
Claire Emslie (vs. Houston Dash)
Claire Emslie played just 45 minutes on Saturday before being subbed out at half for Moriya, but her 3 key passes (94th percentile) and 3 progressive carries (97th percentile) shot her to the upper end of the Outlier standings this week. She also completed two successful defensive actions in the opposing half — while we don’t have pressure metrics to gauge how well players were applying the press, attacking half defensive actions isn’t a terrible proxy. Finally, it was her run to the end-line and cutback to the center of the box that helped set up Angel City’s first goal of the afternoon (Fuller’s subsequent shot was blocked but the rebound fell directly to Macey Hodge who buried one in the lower left corner to open the scoring).
The Scott also notched a 91st percentile performance in dribbling g+ per 45 minutes, a reflection of the danger she was creating on the right flank in the first half. Emslie, the club’s leading goalscorer, has started all four games this season and notched her first assist last week against the Seattle Reign. While she failed to get on the scoresheet this week, her powerful first half performance was enough to give Angel City a two goal cushion going into the break, helping them reach their second straight win. After ending in 12th last season, Angel City have managed to turn things around, thanks, in large part, to an injection of youth and younger players taking on more responsibility. Each of Kennedy Fuller, rookie Riley Tiernan, and Alyssa Thompson have three or more goals and assists through the first four games, which has taken some of the pressure off of squad veterans like Christen Press and, especially, Emslie. Having more creative players on the field is good and it means that you can sub out your #10 at half time if you want to. Emslie may not be on track to have a hugely productive season, but she may not need to. Her quality still shows on the field, and the more freedom she has to do whatever the hell she wants, the better.
Maddie Dahlien (vs. Orlando Pride)
In a team full of questions, Maddie Dahlien is finally starting to find some answers. Despite being deployed at wing back, an unfamiliar position, the 20-year-old UNC grad provided real threat on the wing, both in-behind and on the dribble. In the post-match press conference, Dahlien had this to say about the Reign’s performance against top-of-the-table Orlando Pride: “I thought we outplayed them… we didn’t deserve the loss.” Bold words from a rookie, but Dahlien’s assessment isn’t far off from what we saw at Lumen Field on Saturday; the Reign put in a shift, and didn’t just hunker back against an Orlando side that is seemingly allergic to losing, they challenged Seb Hines’ defense in a way that would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago. Dahlien was a big part of that.
Her 6 progressive carries and 96th percentile dribbling g+ performance tell only part of the story: Maddie Dahlien found herself again and again in promising positions, notching 3 shots despite, again, playing as a wingback!! Her most dangerous attempt came in the 81st minute when Lynn Biyendolo (playing in her first game for the Reign) threaded an inch-perfect ball through Orlando’s backline and straight into the path of a full-sprint Dahlien.
While you’d want her to finish that 1v1, especially with the game on the line, it’s a promising sign that the Reign were even able to get into this position. Mondésir’s pressing, Biyendolo’s pass, and Dahlien’s run all came together to create a moment of pure dynamism and attacking play that Reign fans have been sorely missing for quite some time. If those three players can continue to perform, the kinks will iron themselves out, the balls will start going in the back of the net, and the points will come. Patience is hard to ask from a fanbase that endured such dull play last season, but it is needed. There are signs of promise for this squad.
Honorable Mentions:
Reilyn Turner
84 minutes, 1.7 xG (99th percentile), 15 penalty area touches (93rd percentile)
Alyssa Thompson
89 minutes, 7 progressive carries (97th percentile), 0.84 xG (96th percentile)
Ella Stevens
45 minutes, 3 aerial duels won (97th percentile), 0.07 passing g+ (93rd percentile)