NWSL Outliers: Matchday 7
Flint gets fired up, it's time to talk Tiernan, and a big name finally makes the list
We’re back for the third edition of Outliers, so I’ll keep the explainer short. Every week, I look across the NWSL for statistical anomalies — those players that stood out from the rest by putting up objectively high numbers. I tell you what they did, why it matters, and what to expect in the future. To receive Outliers in your inbox every week, you can subscribe below:
Data from American Soccer Analysis unless otherwise noted.
Note: Percentiles were calculated after normalizing all stats per 45 minutes. Those who played less than 45 minutes were excluded from consideration.
Taylor Flint (vs. Houston Dash)
Toward the end of last season, I took it upon myself to create a Tableau dashboard that could be used to visualize stats from FBref1. When I was finished, I needed to find an attention-grabbing graphic that I could use to promote it. I played around with a few different scatterplots and ultimately ended up going with one that showed tackles on the x-axis and aerial duels (I think?) on the y-axis. In the chart, there was a stark divide: Taylor Flint in the top right corner and everyone else way, way behind her. I posted the image to Twitter alongside a link to my dashboard and honestly, I don’t think anyone cared about the Tableau — all anyone could focus on was how dominant Flint was, and I don’t blame them.
All that to say, Flint is a beast. We know this. Her numbers somehow still manage to surprise me every time, though. Against the Dash, the defensive midfielder completed 30 (!!) successful defensive actions, more than any other player in the league this week. That’s good enough for a 97th percentile performance — but you don’t need me to tell you about it, just look:
I mean, damn. That’s the definition of “all over the place.” Flint had eight clearances in the box, five interceptions in the attacking half, and multiple recoveries right outside the final third. Her 0.199 raw interrupting goals added (g+) was good enough to place her in the 93rd percentile in that category, and her seven successful aerial duels landed her in the 97th percentile there, as well. This was just a dominant performance from Flint and a good reminder that even though there are still a lot of limitations when it comes to valuing defensive impact using data, sometimes the stats do tell a convincing story.
The g+ hasn’t been as kind to Taylor Flint this year versus last, but part of that is likely down to Racing Louisville’s tactical tweaks. While Flint spent most of last season at LCDM or RCDM — essentially in a double pivot with Ary Borges — she’s been deployed more as a “lone 6” this season2, and her performance has suffered.
I don’t need to remind you of the player Flint is, though. When she’s on her game, she’s one of the best defensive mids in the league and we saw that on Saturday against the Dash.
Riley Tiernan (vs. Washington Spirit)
Riley Tiernan has been on fire for Angel City this season, but I’ve been hesitant to include her on here because, seriously, there’s no way she can keep doing this, right? Tiernan now has five goals on a little over one xG, and at this point, I’ve given up. She’s good, she’s scoring, and against the Spirit she notched her first great xG shot of the season — fine, Riley, you win. Without further ado, I present to you the RIley Tiernan shot map:
Tiernan has somehow unlocked a level of low-xG prowess often inaccurately attributed to Ally Sentnor, but it’s working and Angel City are scoring. Tiernan is a surprisingly good receiver — she’s 94th percentile in receiving g+ among players this season — but against the Spirit on Saturday her dribbling capabilities were on display. Tiernan had a quietly impressive 93rd percentile performance in both progressive carries and dribbling g+, complimenting her final third production that once again led to balls in the back of the net. Tiernan’s 95th percentile xG value and 96th percentile shooting g+ performance showed again how good she is in front of goal, even if the xG over-performance gods are plotting her Regression To The Mean ™️.
Angel City fans won’t care, and for now, nor do I. Tiernan is a dog and while you’d like to see more of her chances coming from better positions, her multifaceted attacking play makes Tiernan one of those players you can’t help rooting for.
Barbra Banda (vs. Portland Thorns)
It is a testament to Barbra Banda that even on a day when her team underperformed and she failed to score, she still finds ways to impact the game and land herself in the Outlier rankings (don’t be surprised to see her here; it was only a matter of time before she showed up). Against the Thorns, Banda dropped a 97th percentile dribbling g+ performance and also landed in the 93rd percentile for progressive carries. Here’s what that looked like on the field:
In addition, despite being unable to find the back of the net, Banda had 20 (twenty!) penalty area touches — 95th percentile — 0.45 xG — 91st percentile — and 0.20 shooting g+ — 97th percentile. Look, it wasn’t an otherworldly performance from Banda, but it was pretty damn good, regardless of the scoreline.
So far this season, Banda has done a good job of creating opportunities for herself (35% of her shots are coming from individual play), but she needs some help from her teammates. This is what her shot map looked like last season:
This is what it looks like this season:
A striking difference. Obviously the change between the two isn’t catastrophic — she’s still finding chances and creating ways to score — but Banda bearing more of the shot creation burden isn’t what you want to see from Orlando. Another big difference is the overall quality of her shots: last season, Banda’s share of shots that had good or great xG was at nearly 30%, now, it’s at 16%.
Banda needs the ball in better locations, Seb Hines’ job will be figuring out how to do that. In the meantime she’s relegated from elite and unstoppable to just very good.
Familiar Faces
I’m starting this new section so I can talk a little about players who deserve to be on this list but who were on Outliers too recently to be featured in full again. This week, two players stood out:
Claire Emslie
45 minutes, 0.65 xG (98th percentile), 0.13 shooting g+ (98th percentile), 10 penalty area touches (95th percentile), 2 key passes (90th percentile)
Claire Emslie has continued to play a limited role in this Angel City team but came on for the second half against the Spirit and sparked an attack that scored two to secure the win. If there’s one thing we’ve learned this season, it’s that 45 minutes is seemingly all Emslie needs to affect a game.
Rosemonde Kouassi
66 minutes, 0.80 xG (97th percentile), 5 progressive carries (96th percentile), 0.17 dribbling g+ (96th percentile)
I highlighted Kouassi last week after a promising full 45 minutes and she continued that momentum into this week’s thriller against Angel City. The healthier Kouassi gets, the better she looks. I’m predicting a goal for her when the Spirit face Chicago this weekend.
Honorable Mentions
Mary Vignola
45 minutes, 0.12 passing g+ (97th percentile), 3 progressive carries (96th percentile), 0.04 dribbling g+ (90th percentile)
Midge Purce
45 minutes, 3 progressive carries (96th percentile), 2 aerial duels won (94th percentile), 0.09 receiving g+ (91st percentile)
Madison Pogarch
45 minutes, 3 key passes (94th percentile), 0.09 receiving g+ (91st percentile)
Built using the incredible worldfootballR package, of course; may it rest in peace.
Note that the positions are based off of Opta classifications, so take this all with a grain of salt. I’m not saying her underperformance is solely due to a slightly different role, but I definitely think the formational changes have impacted her performances.