NWSL Outliers: Matchday 11
Moultrie makes waves
Welcome to Outliers, the newsletter where we analyze the NWSL’s statistical anomalies. To receive Outliers in your inbox every week, you can subscribe below:
Data from American Soccer Analysis unless otherwise noted.
Note: Percentiles are position-relative1 and were calculated after normalizing all stats per 45 minutes. Those who played less than 45 minutes were excluded from consideration.
Olivia Moultrie (vs. Bay FC)
Moultrie has arguably been the best midfielder in the league this season, yet she hasn’t made it onto Outliers until now. If anything, that’s a testament to her overall consistency; Moultrie isn’t great because of her standout performances, she’s great because she contributes week after week without fault. The 19-year-old’s evolution from last season is marked, but somehow equally difficult to notice — her improvement hasn’t come in one category but across all of them. Moultrie has made herself into one of the most well-rounded players in the league, landing in the top quartile in a variety of categories. Here’s what she looks like now versus last season:
This week, however, she made her mark in the final third. Moultrie logged 0.68 xG (95th percentile) from seven total shots and found herself in the opposing box quite often, registering 15 penalty area touches (94th percentile). While she failed to find the net, her 0.21 shooting g+ was good enough to place her in the 98th percentile in that category. Moultrie’s offensive involvement against Bay is a reflection of a broader effort in Portland to get Moultrie closer to the opposing goal.
While Moultrie has long rotated across the midfield and out onto the wings, this season, Rob Gale has let Moultrie be the centerpiece around which this Portland attack is built. She’s still found herself at wide midfielder and on the front line, but she’s played far fewer minutes at the No. 6 position, which feels like a no-brainer for anyone who’s watched Moultrie play. It will be interesting to see how the Thorns continue to line up, but one thing is for certain: Moultrie is the creative heart of this team, and she deserves to be.
Temwa Chawinga (vs. Gotham FC)
Dear reader, I know you are rolling your eyes. “Temwa, again?” you mutter in frustration under your breath. Yes, Temwa again. Now, if you’ll bear with me, I can tell you exactly why Chawinga’s performance this week was different from anything we’ve seen out of her before.
Every week, I fire up the Outliers code, open up the results, and scroll right past Barbra Banda and Temwa Chawinga. It’s not that they’re bad — I’ve already highlighted both on this newsletter before — it’s that most weeks, there’s not much interesting to mention about them. Chawinga is almost always an outlier in the progressive carry and dribbling g+ categories, and both her and Banda tend to rank highly in xG, as well. If I led every newsletter with those stats, I imagine most of you would quickly get bored. Instead, I try to focus on other standouts unless:
I have something interesting to say about Banda/Chawinga or
Either forward puts up abnormally high numbers2.
The latter happened this week, but not in the way you might expect.
It’s no secret that Chawinga isn’t known for her link-up play. The Current forward actually has more games with negative raw passing g+ than positive — she’s only surpassed 0.03 twice. Saturday’s game was one of those instances. Chawinga put up 0.18 passing g+, a 95th percentile value for wingers and her second-best single-game value ever. “Hey, that sounds pretty impressive,” you say to yourself3. Let me show you her passing map:
Talk about choosing your moments wisely. To Chawinga’s credit, this wasn’t the only reason I chose to talk about her today. The forward also excelled in interrupting g+, putting up another 95th percentile value that ranked 3rd in her all-time single-game distribution.
The big picture here is this: Chawinga, at the end of the day, is a two-trick pony. She’s a dribbling monster who’s fast as hell and she’s really good in the box. NWSL defenses know that, and yet can’t seem to figure out how to stop her. While the passing volume clearly isn’t high, the fact that Chawinga is managing to improve facets of her game — namely, defensive value — without sacrificing her key qualities (oh, yeah, she put up a 98th percentile dribbling g+ performance, too) must be terrifying for opposing defenses.
Temwa has now scored in four straight games and is finally finding her stride in 2025. I feel bad for everyone else.
Sally Menti (vs. San Diego Wave
Sally Menti made it to Outliers this week for the following reasons:
She put in a good shift on defense, racking up 0.24 interrupting g+ (96th percentile) on 14 successful defensive actions.
She scored an absolute beauty of a goal.
It wasn’t a competitive week on the Outliers rankings, so what else can you do but hand it to the rookie in her second NWSL match?
Good stuff.
Honorable Mentions:
Ellie Jean
90 minutes, 0.61 xG (99th percentile), 6 touches in the penalty area (95th percentile), 0.05 shooting g+ (94th percentile)
Taylor Flint
90 minutes, 20 successful defensive actions (93rd percentile), 11 touches in the penalty area (94th percentile), 0.08 shooting g+ (94th percentile)
This is a new change! All stats are now compared specifically to that player’s primary position.
On the Banda+Chawinga Adjusted Performance Scale ™️
We’re doing a lot of roleplay today, and I’m really not sure why